https://www.avient.com/sites/default/files/2022-03/AVNT Mar 2022 Presentation.pdf
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
• Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future;
• The effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks;
• The current and potential future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, results of operations, financial position or cash flows, including without any limitation, any supply chain and logistics issues;
• Changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding plastics in jurisdictions where we conduct business;
• Fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply, and in energy prices and supply;
• Production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs;
• Unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters;
• Our ability to pay regular quarterly cash dividends and the amounts and timing of any future dividends;
• Information systems failures and cyberattacks;
• Amounts for cash and non-cash charges related to restructuring plans that may differ from original estimates, including because of timing changes associated with the underlying actions; and
• Other factors described in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 under Item 1A, “Risk Factors.”
Our exceptional polymer scientists and design engineers are integral to their
product development process.
https://www.avient.com/sites/default/files/2021-09/avnt-q2-2021-earnings-presentation.pdf
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
• Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future;
• The effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks;
• The current and potential future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, results of operations, financial position or cash flows including without any limitation, any supply chain and logistics issues
• Our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives relating to the acquisition of Clariant’s Masterbatch business, including any expected synergies;
• Changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding plastics in jurisdictions where we conduct business;
• Fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply, and in energy prices and supply;
• Production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs;
• Unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters;
• An inability to achieve the anticipated financial benefit from initiatives related to acquisition and integration working capital reductions, cost reductions and employee productivity goals;
• Our ability to pay regular quarterly cash dividends and the amounts and timing of any future dividends;
• Information systems failures and cyberattacks;
• Our ability to consummate and successfully integrate acquisitions;
• Amounts for cash and non-cash charges related to restructuring plans that may differ from original estimates, including because of timing changes associated with the underlying actions; and
• Other factors described in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 under Item 1A, “Risk Factors.”
Operating Income
$3,783
$4,300
(1) Financial information is pro forma to include a full year of Clariant Masterbatch business acquisition
Previous
Guidance
Current
Guidance
$3,783
$4,650
$308
$410
$308
$430
$1.93
$2.80
$1.93
$3.00
(1) (1)(1)
(1)(1) (1)
$442
$457
$580
$1.74
$1.93
$3.00
FULL YEAR 2019 – 2021 ORGANIC GROWTH
16
Sales Adjusted EBITDA
$3,981
$3,783
$4,650
+ 17%
(1) Financial information is pro forma to include a full year of Clariant Masterbatch business acquisition
(1)(1)
+ 31% + 72%
($ in millions)
2021E Adjusted EBITDA 580$
Free Cash Flow 280$
Total Debt 1,860
Less: Cash (755)
Net Debt 1,105$
2021E Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 1.9x
17
BALANCE SHEET
• Acquisition of Magna Colours completed on
July 1 – expands sustainable solutions
portfolio through water-based inks technology
• Deleveraging to 1.9x net debt to adjusted
EBITDA by the end of 2021
• Driven by record adjusted EBITDA
performance and strong free cash flow
generation from asset light business
• Future cash deployment: M&A, opportunistic
share repurchases and balance sheet /
continued leverage reduction
3.5x
2.7x
1.9x
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA
(1) Financial information is pro forma to include a full year of Clariant Masterbatch business acquisition
SUSTAINABILITY FOR A BETTER TOMORROW
• Revenue from sustainable solutions expected to
grow 14% in 2021 as our innovation efforts and
collaboration with customers continues to accelerate
• Investments centered around innovation and global
sustainability megatrends
o Enabling a circular economy – Technologies that
allow for increased use of post-consumer recycled
(PCR) material and improve recyclability of plastics
o Light-weighting – Composites and CAI applications
to reduce weight and material requirements, which
minimize energy and carbon emissions
o Eco-Conscious – Health and human safety
applications as well as Avient’s alternative materials
to replace lead, PVC, halogens, BPA and other less
eco-friendly options
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020PF**
Bio-polymers Reduced Energy Use Human Health & Safety
Sustainable Infrastructure VOC Reduction Recycle Solutions
Eco-Conscious Lightweighting
Revenue From Sustainable Solutions* 2016-2020
$405M
$455M
*Avient Sustainable Solutions definitions aligned with FTC 2012 Guide for the Use of Environmental Marketing Claims (“Green Guides”)
**2020 is Pro Forma to include full year of the Clariant Masterbatch business
$340M
$550M
$790M
19
Key Updates
• Includes Clariant Masterbatch performance
• Increases disclosures and ESG data
• Provides performance updates on 2030 Sustainability Goals
• Commits to operational carbon neutrality in 2050 and 100%
renewable energy by 2050 (RE 100)
• Announces Avient’s participation in U.N.
https://www.avient.com/sites/default/files/2021-03/avient-march-ir-fermium_0.pdf
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
• The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has on our business, results from operations, financial condition and liquidity;
• Our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives relating to the acquisition of Clariant’s Masterbatch business, including any expected synergies;
• Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future;
• The effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks;
• Changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding the disposal of plastic in jurisdictions where we conduct business;
• Changes in global industry capacity or in the rate at which anticipated changes in industry capacity come online;
• Fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply and in energy prices and supply;
• Production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs;
• Unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters;
• An inability to raise or sustain prices for products or services;
• An ability to achieve or delays in achieving or achievement of less than the anticipated financial benefit from initiatives related to acquisitions and integration, working capital reductions, cost reductions, and employee productivity goals;
• Information systems failures and cyber attacks; and
• Other factors affecting our business beyond our control, including, without limitation, changes in the general economy, changes in interest rates and changes in the rate of inflation.
Our exceptional polymer scientists and design engineers are integral to their
product development process.
https://www.avient.com/sites/default/files/2020-11/investing-in-avient_0.pdf
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
• The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has on our business, results from operations, financial condition and liquidity;
• Our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives relating to the acquisition of Clariant’s Masterbatch business, including any expected synergies;
• Our ability to successful integrate Clariant’s Masterbatch business and achieve the expected results of the acquisition of Clariant’s Masterbatch business, including, without limitation, the acquisition being accretive;
• Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future;
• The effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks;
• Changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding the disposal of plastic in jurisdictions where we conduct business;
• Changes in global industry capacity or in the rate at which anticipated changes in industry capacity come online;
• Fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply and in energy prices and supply;
• Production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs;
• Unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters;
• An inability to raise or sustain prices for products or services;
• An ability to achieve or delays in achieving or achievement of less than the anticipated financial benefit from initiatives related to acquisitions and integration, working capital reductions, cost reductions, and employee productivity goals;
• Information systems failures and cyber attacks; and
• Other factors affecting our business beyond our control, including, without limitation, changes in the general economy, changes in interest rates and changes in the rate of inflation.
Our exceptional polymer scientists and design engineers are integral to their
product development process.
https://www.avient.com/sites/default/files/2022-08/AVNT Aug 2022 Presentation - Jefferies.pdf
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
• Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future;
• The effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks;
• The current and potential future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, results of operations, financial position or cash flows, including without any limitation, any supply chain and logistics issues;
• Changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding plastics in jurisdictions where we conduct business;
• Fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply, and in energy prices and supply;
• Production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs;
• Unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters;
• Our ability to pay regular quarterly cash dividends and the amounts and timing of any future dividends;
• Information systems failures and cyberattacks;
• Amounts for cash and non-cash charges related to restructuring plans that may differ from original estimates, including because of timing changes associated with the underlying actions;
• Any material adverse changes in the equity and assets of Koninklijke DSM N.V.’s protective materials business (“the Dyneema Business”);
• Our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives relating to the acquisition of the Dyneema Business and the possible sale of the Distribution business segment; and
• Other factors described in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 and our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2022 under Item 1A, “Risk Factors.”
Annual Purchases
RAW MATERIAL AND SUPPLY CHAIN UPDATE
Based on 2021 purchases, excludes Distribution business
DYN E E MA ACQ U I S I T I O N
32
15x stronger than steel
Reduces weight by 30% vs. other solutions
Well-maintained global asset base poised to serve growing demand
• Purchase price of $1.48B represents 11.4x multiple of
2022 EBITDA
• Acquisition will expand Avient’s composites and fiber
portfolio with Dyneema®, the World’s Strongest Fiber™
• $415M sales and 30%+ EBITDA margins; Immediately
accretive to pro forma 2022 EPS, adding $0.35
• 1,300 patents globally, ~50% of sales patent protected
• 1,000+ employees across global production network and
dedicated technology centers
• Composites platform will increase from $261M to $680M in
revenue and from $49M to $180M in EBITDA Indicates Dyneema® location
$175M
(42%)
$65M
(16%)
$175M
(42%)
2022E Sales By Region ($M)
(1) $0.35 EPS excludes intangible amortization
(2) Based on 2022 expected results
(1) (2)
(2)
FIT WITH FOUR PILLAR STRATEGY
33
Specialization
• Innovation-led organization with
tremendous intellectual property value in
trademarks, patents and “know-how”
• Deep history of application development
and premium, leading brand with the
World’s Strongest FiberTM
Globalization
• Global customer base with an
established presence across all major
geographic regions
• Global technology centers complement
existing Composites applications and
expertise
Operational
Excellence
• Best-in-class safety performance
• Well-run and maintained asset base fit to
serve future growth
• Highly effective and reliable supply chain
with emphasis on optimizing service to
customers
Commercial
Excellence
• Deep customer relationships extend
across the value chain and drive ability
to grow
• Offer a full suite of services with an active
role in design, development and
commercialization
People
Experienced and
talented associates
with a passion for
safety, specialization
and winning
DYNEEMA® OVERVIEW
K E Y I N D U S T R I E S
PERSONAL PROTECTION
Military • Law Enforcement • First
Responders Body Armor • Helmets •
Vehicle Protection
$215M
MARINE & SUSTAINABLE
INFRASTRUCTURE
Towing / Mooring • Aquaculture •
Floating Wind • Offshore Cranes
$130M
CONSUMER
Consumer • Outdoor High Performance •
Safety Equipment
$70M
34 Figures reflect 2022 expected sales
MIFOverview Competition Valuechain &
Go-to-market Strategy Innovation Financials
TECHNOLOGY
35
1,200 1,300
2,500
Avient Dyneema Combined
Patents
• True specialty business – the World’s Strongest Fiber™
• Deep history of application development with customers,
strongest in the industry
• The only UHMwPE (ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene)
fiber producer that is backward integrated
o Provides innovation advantage through control of all steps of the process
• Complementary with our existing reinforced film expertise
(PolyStrand) and engineered fiber presences (Fiber-Line)
WINNING PROPERTIES
Ultra high strength vs. weight Highly flexible
Floats on water Chemically inert; no smell/taste and non-toxic
High resistance to UV radiation Self-lubricating, with low friction
One-of-a-kind technology
®
FORMULATION PROCESS
36
• Like Avient, Dyneema® offers similar
core competencies around formulation
and material science
• Technology that combines polymers and
fibers to provide specialized, high
performing solutions for customers
• Design capabilities ensure that
applications are highly customized for
the specified end use
DYNEEMA® IN THE VALUE CHAIN
37
UHMwPE
Fiber / Tapes
Military Personnel,
Law Enforcement
Heavy Marine,
Offshore Wind Energy
and Mooring,
Aquaculture
Outdoor,
Footwear, Apparel,
Inflatables
• Material Science
• Formulation
• Service
INTERMEDIATE MANUFACTURING
(CUSTOMERS) OEM / APPLICATION
DEMAND TRENDS
38
• Military spending and near-term demand for higher performing personal protection
products (like Dyneema®) expected to increase
o European NATO members annual defense spend expected to increase by up to 20%(1)
o Japan aiming to almost double defense spending over the next 5 years(2)
o Accelerated launch of next generation technology in North America
• Policy-driven demand for sustainable energy; growth in floating offshore wind
farms which require advanced, durable technology
o Offshore wind expected to grow at a CAGR of 32% with the level of annual installations
quadrupling over the next five years(3)
• Continued investment in aquaculture as a sustainable food source(4)
• Strong demand in outdoor high performance space across niche consumer
applications aligns with 10% growth assumption for Avient’s Composites portfolio
Sources:
(1) “Funding NATO”, NATO.int (April 1, 2022)
(2) “Japan Ruling Party Calls for Defense Spending Boost to 2% of GDP”, WSJ (April 21, 2022)
(3) “Global Wind Report 2021”, Global Wind Energy Council
(4) “Aquaculture Supports a Sustainable Earth”, NOAA Fisheries
39
A L I G N M E N T W I T H
S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y G O A L S
PRODUCTS
AVIENT’S EXISTING COMPOSITES PORTFOLIO
D I V E R S E C A P A B I L I T I E S A N D S O L U T I O N S S E R V I N G
M A N U F A C T U R E R S A N D O E M S
LFT Tapes Laminates/Panels Shapes Pultrusion Engineered Fibers
40
AVIENT’S COMPOSITES PORTFOLIO
SALES AND EBITDA
41
$74 $84
$216 $212
$261
$5 $10
$32
$41
$49
$180
0
50
100
150
200
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E
$680
• Dyneema® acquisition will further
improve Composites EBITDA margins
to 26%
• Dyneema® will complement our
existing portfolio with deep formulation
expertise, innovative culture and
global commercial presence
• Composites will continue to be a key
growth driver to deliver future revenue
growth in excess of GDP
(1) Pro forma for the acquisition of Dyneema®
SEGMENT DATA
U.S. & Canada
50%
Latin America
2021 SEGMENT, END MARKET AND GEOGRAPHY
GEOGRAPHY REVENUESEGMENT FINANCIALS
19%
Building and
END MARKET REVENUE
(1) Total company sales and adjusted EBITDA of $4,819M and $581M, respectively, include intercompany sales eliminations and corporate costs
$2,402M
$409M
$919M
$164M
$1,631M
$94M
Sales EBITDA
Distribution
Specialty Engineered Materials
Color Additives and Inks
$581M$4,819M
43
34%
Building &
1% Telecommunications
C O L O R , A D D I T I V E S & I N K S
2021 REVENUE | $2 .4 BILLION
32%
40%
Latin America
END MARKET REGION
44
S P E C I A LT Y E N G I N E E R E D M AT E R I A L S
27%
Building &
2021 REVENUE | $919 MILLION
END MARKET
55%
REGION
45
D I S T R I BU T I O N
26%
Building and
80%
3%
Latin
America
END MARKET REGION
K EY SU PPL IER S
2021 REVENUE | $1 .6 BILLION
46
TOTA L C O M PA N Y R E G I O N A L S A L E S
BY END MARKET
30%
26%Healthcare
14%
Building &
2% Energy
(16% of sales)
32%
Building &
(25% of sales)
47
19%
Building &
US &
Canada
(50% of sales)
38%
33%
Building &
LATAM
(9% of sales)
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
(Unaudited)
(Dollars in millions, except for per share data)
Senior management uses comparisons of adjusted net income from continuing operations attributable to Avient shareholders
and diluted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations attributable to Avient shareholders, excluding special
items, to assess performance and facilitate comparability of results.
https://www.avient.com/sites/default/files/2021-04/avient-q4-earnings-and-2021-outlook-website.pdf
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
• The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has on our business, results from operations, financial condition and liquidity;
• Our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives relating to the acquisition of Clariant’s Masterbatch business, including any expected synergies;
• Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future;
• The effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks;
• Changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding the disposal of plastic in jurisdictions where we conduct business;
• Changes in global industry capacity or in the rate at which anticipated changes in industry capacity come online;
• Fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply and in energy prices and supply;
• Production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs;
• Unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters;
• Our ability to continue to pay cash dividends including at the increased rate;
• Our ability to consummate and successfully integrate acquisitions;
• An inability to raise or sustain prices for products or services;
• An ability to achieve or delays in achieving or achievement of less than the anticipated financial benefit from initiatives related to acquisitions and integration, working capital reductions, cost reductions, and employee productivity goals;
• Information systems failures and cyber attacks; and
• Other factors affecting our business beyond our control, including, without limitation, changes in the general economy, changes in interest rates and changes in the rate of inflation.
Our exceptional polymer scientists and design engineers are integral to their
product development process.
https://www.avient.com/sites/default/files/2020-10/investing-in-avient.pdf
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
• The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has on our business, results from operations, financial condition and liquidity;
• Our ability to achieve the strategic and other objectives relating to the acquisition of Clariant’s Masterbatch business, including any expected synergies;
• Our ability to successful integrate Clariant’s Masterbatch business and achieve the expected results of the acquisition of Clariant’s Masterbatch business, including, without limitation, the acquisition being accretive;
• Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future;
• The effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks;
• Changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding the disposal of plastic in jurisdictions where we conduct business;
• Changes in global industry capacity or in the rate at which anticipated changes in industry capacity come online;
• Fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply and in energy prices and supply;
• Production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs;
• Unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters;
• An inability to raise or sustain prices for products or services;
• An ability to achieve or delays in achieving or achievement of less than the anticipated financial benefit from initiatives related to acquisitions and integration, working capital reductions, cost reductions, and employee productivity goals;
• Information systems failures and cyber attacks; and
• Other factors affecting our business beyond our control, including, without limitation, changes in the general economy, changes in interest rates and changes in the rate of inflation.
Our exceptional polymer scientists and design engineers are integral to their
product development process.
https://www.avient.com/investor-center/news/polyone-announces-third-quarter-2018-results
is a premier provider of specialized polymer materials, services and solutions.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future; the effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks; changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding the disposal of plastic in jurisdictions where we conduct business; changes in global industry capacity or in the rate at which anticipated changes in industry capacity come online; fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply and in energy prices and supply; production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs; unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters; an inability to raise or sustain prices for products or services; information systems failures and cyberattacks; and other factors affecting our business beyond our control, including, without limitation, changes in the general economy, changes in interest rates and changes in the rate of inflation.
https://www.avient.com/investor-center/news/polyone-announces-second-quarter-2019-results
is a premier provider of specialized polymer materials, services and solutions.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those implied by these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: our ability to identify and evaluate acquisition targets and consummate and integrate acquisitions; disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future; the effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks; changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding plastics in jurisdictions where we conduct business; changes in global industry capacity or in the rate at which anticipated changes in industry capacity come online; fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply, and in energy prices and supply; production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs; unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters; an inability to raise or sustain prices for products or services; an ability to achieve or delays in achieving or achievement of less than the anticipated financial benefit from initiatives related to acquisition and integration, working capital reductions, costs reductions and employee productivity goals; information systems failures and cyberattacks; and other factors affecting our business beyond our control, including, without limitation, changes in the general economy, changes in interest rates and changes in the rate of inflation.
https://www.avient.com/investor-center/news/polyone-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2019-results
is a premier provider of specialized polymer materials, services and solutions.
masterbatch business, including, without limitation, the acquisition being accretive; disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the credit markets that could adversely impact the availability of credit already arranged and the availability and cost of credit in the future; the effect on foreign operations of currency fluctuations, tariffs and other political, economic and regulatory risks; changes in polymer consumption growth rates and laws and regulations regarding plastics in jurisdictions where we conduct business; changes in global industry capacity or in the rate at which anticipated changes in industry capacity come online; fluctuations in raw material prices, quality and supply, and in energy prices and supply; production outages or material costs associated with scheduled or unscheduled maintenance programs; unanticipated developments that could occur with respect to contingencies such as litigation and environmental matters; an inability to raise or sustain prices for products or services; an ability to achieve or delays in achieving or achievement of less than the anticipated financial benefit from initiatives related to acquisition and integration, working capital reductions, costs reductions and employee productivity goals; information systems failures and cyberattacks; and other factors affecting our business beyond our control, including, without limitation, changes in the general economy, changes in interest rates and changes in the rate of inflation.